In that history has a habit of repeating itself, there is a significant correlation concerning internal and external circumstances which determined the destiny of the National Party and those which currently beset the ANC.
Despite efforts to bottle up Black people in economically unviable, spatially inadequate and geographically scattered ethnic homelands, socio-economic realities compelled the National Party to embark on political reforms which led to a half-baked form of power sharing.
But that flawed dispensation served only to ignite massive Black unrest, which, coupled with international sanctions and disinvestment, led to the capitulation of the National Party and the accession of the ANC to power.
In 2003, BEE was consolidated into Broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE). Next month, the third wave of B-BBEE is scheduled to commence with new sector-specific targets. Despite its title, its application has neither alleviated Black unemployment nor benefited the general Black population. Instead, B-BBEE has entrenched and enriched an elite, promoted institutional decay and discouraged foreign investment.
After 30 years, the National Party had the sense to realise that its Bantustan policy was costly and unworkable. Since 2003, B-BBEE has been in operation without any tangible evidence that it is the solution to reducing unemployment and accelerating economic growth and investment. Yet the ANC is determined not only to persist with it but also to further tighten its application.
Expecting a virtuous outcome by repeating a failed policy, especially in an intensified form, is not only stupid but also politically very risky. Yet that is exactly the position in which the ANC finds itself in 2025. At the same time, it is beset by the economically crippling prospect of American trade tariffs, having been denied the continued tariff-free benefit of participation in AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act).
Internal political strife, coupled with severe international economic pressure on account of an established, well-orchestrated anti-apartheid campaign, left the National Party government with neither time nor credibility to attempt a survival trajectory.
In place of its boast to deliver “a better life for all”, the ANC’s socialism has delivered unprecedented squalor, impoverishment, crime, corruption and dysfunctionalism. As a result, history indicates that its political fate is mirrored in that of its predecessor. However, the difference is the NP’s loss of power did not leave South Africa in a state of ruin.
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