In terms of military protocol, official statements by military personnel concerning foreign policy and political alliances are strictly off limits. Maphwanya’s disregard for that protocol should have earned him a severe reprimand and produced a prompt retraction by the Department of International Relations.

The fact that those responses have not taken place and that within the ANC there is division between two ministries on the matter – Defence and Foreign Relations – not to mention the silence of the Office of the President, is symptomatic of the political implosion and disarray within the ANC.

A study of the reasons military coups take place in Africa is extremely disquieting, given the conditions within South Africa, which more than match those reasons. Here they are: power struggles within the ruling elite, frustration and loss of faith in democracy for failing to deliver services, high unemployment, rampant crime, severe economic hardship and impoverishment, sheer incompetence of elected leaders, the fragility of the rule of law, and external geopolitical factors.

According to the Cline Centre of the University of Illinois, between 2001 and 2017, there were 33 coups and attempted coups in Africa. Since 2020, there have been nine military coups, the most recent being in Niger, Gabon and Mali. The allure of power is a human failing as old as history itself. A weak or failed civilian government provides a tempting invitation to seize power for those who see the opportunity to enrich themselves and elevate their lifestyles.

Having the confidence to violate military protocol while in Iran, General Maphwanya must have anticipated that he was not risking his military career, as the subsequent craven acceptance of his conduct by the Defence Ministry has confirmed. Thus emboldened, how might this situation influence Maphwanya’s aspirations?

Addressing a summit meeting of the Organisation of African Unity in June 1994 on the failure of governance in Africa, South Africa’s newly minted President Nelson Mandela stated, “We must face the matter that where there is something wrong in how we govern ourselves, it must be said that the fault is in ourselves.”

Mandela’s words ring darkly for South Africa, given the history of Africa’s coup disease.

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Despite efforts to bottle up Black people in economically unviable, spatially inadequate and geographically scattered ethnic homelands, socio-economic realities compelled the National Party to embark on political reforms which led to a half-baked form of power sharing.

But that flawed dispensation served only to ignite massive Black unrest, which, coupled with international sanctions and disinvestment, led to the capitulation of the National Party and the accession of the ANC to power.

In 2003, BEE was consolidated into Broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE). Next month, the third wave of B-BBEE is scheduled to commence with new sector-specific targets. Despite its title, its application has neither alleviated Black unemployment nor benefited the general Black population. Instead, B-BBEE has entrenched and enriched an elite, promoted institutional decay and discouraged foreign investment.

After 30 years, the National Party had the sense to realise that its Bantustan policy was costly and unworkable. Since 2003, B-BBEE has been in operation without any tangible evidence that it is the solution to reducing unemployment and accelerating economic growth and investment. Yet the ANC is determined not only to persist with it but also to further tighten its application.

Expecting a virtuous outcome by repeating a failed policy, especially in an intensified form, is not only stupid but also politically very risky. Yet that is exactly the position in which the ANC finds itself in 2025. At the same time, it is beset by the economically crippling prospect of American trade tariffs, having been denied the continued tariff-free benefit of participation in AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act).

Internal political strife, coupled with severe international economic pressure on account of an established, well-orchestrated anti-apartheid campaign, left the National Party government with neither time nor credibility to attempt a survival trajectory.

In place of its boast to deliver “a better life for all”, the ANC’s socialism has delivered unprecedented squalor, impoverishment, crime, corruption and dysfunctionalism. As a result, history indicates that its political fate is mirrored in that of its predecessor. However, the difference is the NP’s loss of power did not leave South Africa in a state of ruin.

The post ANC’s Fate Mirrored in That of the NP appeared first on Duncan Du Bois.

The only take-away from the televised encounter is one of great embarrassment for South Africa. Trump’s posture and body language showed that he wasn’t buying any of Ramaphosa’s copy and paste rhetoric asking for investment in the economy which his policies have destroyed.

Instead of adopting dignified postures while the video clips of Malema’s call for genocide were being screened, Ramaphosa grinned and even attempted to make conversation while one of his delegation laughed.

Seeing is believing. Now the world knows that farm murders are not fake news and that Malema’s call in front of a packed stadium for the mass killing of whites is a real threat. Ramaphosa’s failure to respond to Trump’s question why Malema has not been arrested adds to that conviction.

Hugely disappointing was John Steenhuizen’s failure to emphasise the reality of farm murders. Then, by his uncalled for expression of virtual collegiality with Ramaphosa , he threw away the golden opportunity to state crisply that rampant crime is linked to mass unemployment which is the result of job-destroying socialist, BEE policies.

While a reset of US relations with South Africa is taking place, for the ANC and DA their performance in Washington indicates that a watershed moment has arrived. For the ANC, however, like Humpty Dumpty, it is beyond salvage.

But for the DA to salvage itself, particularly after its Public Works minister MacPherson’s attempt to play down the serious threat of land expropriation at the Nampo conference, its only solution is to reinstate Tony Leon’s apt and successful ‘Fight Back’ ethos.

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